Free trade agreements: a survey of the theory and evidence

Abstract

Free trade agreements are prolific. This survey first introduces a framework which helps us pin down the most important questions to ask. Some issues have been well addressed in the literature, but some have not. Trade creation and trade diversion has been the dominating idea in the welfare analysis of FTAs and in policy debates. The political-economy approach is an appropriate one to explain why countries form FTAs. The literature has successfully analyzed the externalities of FTA, that is, an FTA’s effects on outsiders. The externalities induce other countries to join existing FTEs or form new FTAs, resulting in more FTAs and larger trading blocs. More researches should be done to explain how countries from FTAs and who are more likely to form FTAs. To answer these questions, we need models with more structures like bargaining and negotiations.

自由貿易協定(FTA)如雨后春筍,方興未艾。在這篇綜述文章里,首先提出一個分析框架來確定什么問題是重要的和需要進行研究的,繼而指出哪些問題已經得到很好的回答,而哪些則還未得到足夠的研究。在對FTA的福利分析和政策辯論中,貿易創造和貿易轉移這一概念一直都占主導地位。政治經濟學的方法非常適合用來解釋國家間為什么簽訂FTA。現有的研究成功解釋了FTA的外部性,即FTA對外部國家的影響。這種外部性引發其它國家或者加入現有的FTA,或者組成新的FTA。這最終導致更大的自由貿易區和更多的FTA的形成。至于FTA是如何形成的,哪些國家更可能達成FTA,這些問題需要進一步的研究。在研究這些問題時,需要把更多的結構(例如國家之間的討價還價和談判)引進到模型里。