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Article: Correcting the actual reproduction number: A simple method to estimate R0 from early epidemic growth data

TitleCorrecting the actual reproduction number: A simple method to estimate R0 from early epidemic growth data
Authors
KeywordsAIDS
Basic reproduction number
Epidemiology
Estimation techniques
HIV
Infectious diseases
Statistical model
Transmission
Issue Date2010
PublisherMolecular Diversity Preservation International. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.mdpi.org/ijerph
Citation
International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health, 2010, v. 7 n. 1, p. 291-302 How to Cite?
AbstractThe basic reproduction number, R0, a summary measure of the transmission potential of an infectious disease, is estimated from early epidemic growth rate, but a likelihood-based method for the estimation has yet to be developed. The present study corrects the concept of the actual reproduction number, offering a simple framework for estimating R0 without assuming exponential growth of cases. The proposed method is applied to the HIV epidemic in European countries, yielding R0 values ranging from 3.60 to 3.74, consistent with those based on the Euler-Lotka equation. The method also permits calculating the expected value of R0 using a spreadsheet. © 2010 by the authors; licensee Molecular Diversity Preservation International.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134203
ISSN
2015 Impact Factor: 2.035
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.883
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID
Funding AgencyGrant Number
JST PRESTO program
Funding Information:

The work of H. Nishiura was supported by the JST PRESTO program.

References

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hen_HK
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-13T07:20:48Z-
dc.date.available2011-06-13T07:20:48Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_HK
dc.identifier.citationInternational Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health, 2010, v. 7 n. 1, p. 291-302en_HK
dc.identifier.issn1660-4601en_HK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/134203-
dc.description.abstractThe basic reproduction number, R0, a summary measure of the transmission potential of an infectious disease, is estimated from early epidemic growth rate, but a likelihood-based method for the estimation has yet to be developed. The present study corrects the concept of the actual reproduction number, offering a simple framework for estimating R0 without assuming exponential growth of cases. The proposed method is applied to the HIV epidemic in European countries, yielding R0 values ranging from 3.60 to 3.74, consistent with those based on the Euler-Lotka equation. The method also permits calculating the expected value of R0 using a spreadsheet. © 2010 by the authors; licensee Molecular Diversity Preservation International.en_HK
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisherMolecular Diversity Preservation International. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.mdpi.org/ijerphen_HK
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Healthen_HK
dc.subjectAIDSen_HK
dc.subjectBasic reproduction numberen_HK
dc.subjectEpidemiologyen_HK
dc.subjectEstimation techniquesen_HK
dc.subjectHIVen_HK
dc.subjectInfectious diseasesen_HK
dc.subjectStatistical modelen_HK
dc.subjectTransmissionen_HK
dc.titleCorrecting the actual reproduction number: A simple method to estimate R0 from early epidemic growth dataen_HK
dc.typeArticleen_HK
dc.identifier.emailNishiura, H:nishiura@hku.hken_HK
dc.identifier.authorityNishiura, H=rp01488en_HK
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_versionen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/ijerph7010291en_HK
dc.identifier.pmid20195446-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC2819789-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-75449118270en_HK
dc.relation.referenceshttp://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-75449118270&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpageen_HK
dc.identifier.volume7en_HK
dc.identifier.issue1en_HK
dc.identifier.spage291en_HK
dc.identifier.epage302en_HK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000274000900019-
dc.publisher.placeSwitzerlanden_HK
dc.identifier.scopusauthoridNishiura, H=7005501836en_HK
dc.identifier.citeulike6572396-

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